Is Summit County’s Real Estate Slowdown Seasonal or Is It Mortgage Rates?

Fall is here in Summit County, and with it comes a familiar shift in our real estate market. Summer activity starts winding down, visitor traffic drops, and we typically see fewer buyers actively shopping for mountain property as we move toward winter.

That part isn’t unusual.

What makes this year more interesting is what’s happening with mortgage rates. Borrowing costs have moved higher, buyers are feeling it, and we’re seeing fewer properties make it all the way to the closing table.

So in Episode 178 of The Ski Summit Show, I wanted to answer a question I’ve been hearing quite a bit lately:

Is the Summit County market slowing because that’s what normally happens in the fall, or are higher interest rates actually changing our market?

The numbers suggest we’re seeing some of both. But there’s an important distinction between slowing sales and rising inventory, and that’s where I think the current market gets interesting.

Summit County Doesn’t Have an Inventory Problem

One of the easiest conclusions to make when homes start taking longer to sell is that there must suddenly be too many properties on the market.

That’s not really what our numbers are showing.

At the time we recorded this episode, there were approximately 860 active listings in Summit County, including Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Dillon, Frisco, Keystone and the Silverthorne area.

Last October, we were sitting at roughly 888 active properties.

In other words, we actually have slightly fewer properties available now than we did around this time last year.

We’re also seeing the normal seasonal pattern in new listings. Over the past few weeks, the number of properties coming onto the market has been slightly below what we saw during the same period over the previous couple of years.

That’s important because it tells us sellers aren’t suddenly flooding the market.

As we head toward winter, inventory is beginning to contract just like we’d normally expect in Summit County.

So when someone looks at today’s market and says, “There are too many homes for sale,” I’d push back on that a little.

Buyers certainly have more choices than they did during the extremely competitive market of a few years ago, but that’s not the same thing as having an unusual surge in inventory.

What’s Really Slowing Down Is Buyer Activity

This is where the market has changed more noticeably.

Properties are taking longer to sell, fewer homes are going under contract, and our most recent year-over-year sales numbers showed September sales down approximately 23%.

That’s significant.

It also helps explain why the market can feel like it has a lot of inventory even though the actual number of properties for sale hasn’t increased dramatically.

Homes are simply sitting on the market longer.

If a new listing comes onto the market while another property hasn’t sold yet, buyers gradually accumulate more choices. That changes the negotiating environment even without a huge increase in the total number of sellers.

And that’s what we’re experiencing now.

Buyers can take more time. They can compare properties. They can look closely at condition, location, HOA costs and pricing. They don’t necessarily have to make a decision the moment a property hits the MLS.

That’s a very different environment from a market where multiple buyers are competing for the same property immediately.

Are Mortgage Rates Keeping Buyers on the Sidelines?

I think mortgage rates are absolutely part of what we’re seeing.

Even when a property’s asking price looks attractive, the cost of financing that purchase can dramatically change the monthly payment. Buyers who need financing are looking at the entire cost of ownership, not just the number printed on the listing.

That can make people hesitate.

Some buyers are waiting to see what happens with rates. Others are adjusting the price range they’re comfortable shopping in. And some are simply deciding that today’s numbers don’t work for them yet.

But there’s another side to that equation.

Less competition can create opportunity.

A buyer who is financially prepared to purchase today may have considerably more leverage than someone trying to buy during a much hotter market.

We’re seeing softer pricing. We’re seeing price reductions. We’re seeing properties spend more time on the market. Sellers have more reason to listen when a serious buyer comes to the table.

That doesn’t mean every seller is desperate to make a deal, and it certainly doesn’t mean every property is suddenly a bargain.

It means buyers have something they haven’t always had in Summit County: room to negotiate.

What Does This Mean for Summit County Sellers?

For sellers, this isn’t necessarily bad news, but expectations matter.

When homes aren’t selling as quickly, pricing becomes increasingly important. Buyers have enough inventory to compare your property against competing homes, and they’re going to notice the differences.

A property that’s updated, well maintained, properly presented and priced appropriately can still stand out.

A property that’s priced based on what a neighbor received during a much more competitive market may have a harder time.

Longer days on market also don’t automatically mean there’s something wrong with a property. That’s an important point in the current environment. If the entire market is moving more slowly, a good property can simply take longer to find the right buyer.

We’re actually seeing a good example of that with this week’s featured listing in Frisco.

What’s Happening: Give Your Old Gear Another Life in Frisco

This week’s community stop is particularly appropriate as everyone starts digging winter equipment out of storage.

The Frisco Free Repair Fair is happening October 10, and the idea is pretty simple. Before you throw something away because it’s damaged, see if it can be fixed.

And they’re covering a surprising range of stuff.

There will be help with bikes, skis, snowboards and skateboards, along with clothing repair and patches, knife sharpening and other household items.

That’s exactly my kind of event.

I’ve got a pair of skis with a split tail that I’m planning to bring over and see what they can do with. If they can save them, I’d much rather keep using a perfectly good pair of skis than send them to the landfill because one section needs repair.

It’s also a pretty fitting Summit County event. We put a lot of wear on our outdoor gear up here, and repairing something instead of replacing it makes a lot of sense.

One important piece of local intelligence from this week’s show: bring a coffee mug if you want coffee.

And as Benji pointed out, maybe bring a broken mug and see if they’ll repair that first.

Learn more about the Frisco Free Repair Fair

Listing of the Week: 1512 Point Drive B in Frisco

This week’s Listing of the Week is a great example of why buyers should be paying attention to properties that have been on the market for a while.

We’re looking at 1512 Point Drive B in Frisco, a four-bedroom property with approximately 2,082 square feet of living space.

It’s been on the market through a slower summer, and it recently received a price reduction. But longer days on market don’t suddenly make this a bad property. In fact, there’s quite a bit here that I like.

The location is a big part of it.

The property backs up to open space and sits near the lake and recreation path, giving you easy access to the outdoor lifestyle people are looking for when they buy in Frisco. There’s also a great backyard area with an expanded deck and a hot tub.

Inside, the home is already updated. The kitchen and bathrooms have been redone, there are wood floors, and the property comes furnished.

That makes this a turnkey mountain property rather than a project someone needs to take on immediately after closing.

You’ve also got four bedrooms spread across multiple levels, providing plenty of sleeping space for family and guests. Depending on how you’d use the property, the fourth bedroom could potentially become a recreation room or another flexible living area.

And then there’s something I always appreciate in a mountain property: a garage.

Not only do you get covered parking, but there’s additional storage for all the equipment that inevitably comes with living and playing in Summit County.

Skis have to go somewhere. Preferably before they end up at the Repair Fair.

View 1512 Point Drive B in Frisco

If you’d like to see the property in person, reach out and I’ll be happy to set up a showing.

Is This a Better Time to Buy in Summit County?

There’s no universal answer to that question.

Higher mortgage rates have made financing more expensive, and that’s a very real consideration for anyone purchasing with a loan.

But market conditions don’t move in isolation.

When rates were lower and buyer demand was extremely strong, buyers often had less negotiating power. Now we’re seeing the opposite dynamic. Financing is more expensive, but competition has softened and buyers have more choices.

That’s why I wouldn’t make a Summit County real estate decision based solely on a national headline about mortgage rates or housing inventory.

Our mountain market is its own market.

Right now, Summit County inventory is behaving relatively normally for the season. What’s changed more dramatically is the pace of sales.

For buyers, that can mean more time, more choices and potentially more negotiating leverage.

For sellers, it means pricing and positioning a property correctly matter more than they have in quite a while.

And for everyone, it makes understanding the local numbers considerably more useful than trying to apply a national housing story to Breckenridge, Frisco, Keystone, Dillon, Silverthorne or Copper Mountain.

If you’re considering buying or selling in Summit County and want to talk through what these conditions mean for your specific situation, I’m always happy to be a resource.

Explore Summit County homes for sale at Ski Summit Homes

See you in the mountains soon...